Thus, the rainfall system in Ethiopia is characterized by spatial and temporalvariabilities.Rainfall in Ethiopia is the result is influenced by the position of Intertropical Convergence Zone(ITCZ). Bean, pea, chickpea and lentil production are particularly related to kiremit rains in all stages because these crops are sown in the second week of June. The Geological Time Scale and Age Dating Techniques, 2.4. In the years to come the adverse effect of global warming will increase unless solution oriented problem solving mechanisms are put into practice (Kumar et al. Our study provides a novel overview of expected climate trends in Zambia, which can act as guidelines for strategic planning of flood and drought prevention. Density distribution plots of observed climate indices for meteorological stations and gridded indices are also analysed, which indicate significant negative trends in the annual number of frost days and significant increasing trends in warm nights in the EH region over the 19602000 period. Mean annual minimum and maximum temperatures increased from 12.69 to 13.32 C and 26.43 to 26.91 C from 1981 to 2010, respectively. We used 12-member ensembles of General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Phase 5 (CMIP5) to evaluate climate-attributed changes in the hydrology of the Mataquito river basin in central Chile, South America. 2015). This process is repeated for the whole data sequence. However, some parts of thecountry enjoy a temperate climate. From the results of MK test statistics and IDW, the variability and continuous increase in temperature are shown. Fluctuating productivity and hence food insecurity for the area is due to long-term variability in the annual and seasonal rainfall. In contrast to the kiremit season, the five years' moving average annual rainfall of the bega season during the period 19802014 was highly variable. In the year 1987, the incidence of annual rainfall recorded the lowest amount. Do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in Ethiopia? The magnitude of the significantly increasing trend of mean annual rainfall of 0.28 mm/year and 1.07% (DB station) was recorded, whereas a significantly decreasing trend of mean annual rainfall was observed with the values of 8.62 mm/year and 27.88% (HG station). 5.3.1. 3. In Ethiopia, the spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature varies widely (Regassa et al. Spatiotemporal Distribution of RainfallRainfall system in Ethiopia is characterized by complexities. Additionally, serial correlation was tested. This report compiles information from a wide variety of data and information sources. Ethiopias daily temperatures are more extreme than its annual averages. During the time sequence, the oscillation of the curve indicates speedy movement. 33 days from submission to first decision on average. 2005). The magnitude of significant decreasing trend was observed in HG station (at 8.62 mm/year and 27.88%). Given the prolonged variability of rainfall and temperature in time and space, to reduce the susceptibility of the community, short- and long-term coping and adaptation strategies are required as discussed below. The CMIP5 datasets were statistically downscaled by using the climate model data for hydrologic modeling (CMhyd) tool and bias corrected using the distribution mapping method available in the CMhyd tool. Rainfall Regions of EthiopiaBased on rainfall distribution, both in space and time, four rainfall regions can be identifiedin Ethiopia and the Horn. kiremit season (JuneSeptember), belg season (MarchMay), bega season (OctoberFebruary) and annually for all subdivisions, while the long-term trend of temperature was assessed for annual average, annual minimum and maximum temperature. The daily observed rainfall and temperature data at eleven stations were obtained from the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia, while simulated historical and future climate data were obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) datasets under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) of 4.5 and 8.5. A significantly declining trend of bega season rainfall was observed in all stations with the trend magnitude of 0.61 mm/year and 7.50% in GIN station to 0.21 mm/year and 56.40% in DBS station. It is shown that the MT-CLIM meteorological algorithms used by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model, when driven by daily T min , T max , and precipitation (a configuration used in numerous published studies), do not preserve the original global model's humidity trends. The researches and analysis in this study indicates that, while climate change is likely to pose serious threats to development in the RM, it also has the potential to bring opportunities. To browse Academia.edu and the wider internet faster and more securely, please take a few seconds toupgrade your browser. 2010 ). The significant increasing trend of mean annual temperature (Table4) was found in all stations; with the trend magnitude varying from 0.03 to 0.14 C/year respectively. Spatiotemporal Patterns and Distribution of Temperature and Rainfall in Ethiopia, 5.5. 2014). doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2018.064. 2013; Irannezhad et al. Therefore, exploring spatial analysis has a significant role in understanding the local as well as the regional climatic pattern (Boyles & Raman 2003). The principal sources of uncertainty for the indicators and modelling results are discussed and, where appropriate, reflected in the assessments. During this season, the south easterliesfrom Indian ocean showers the lowlands in southeastern part of Ethiopia.iii. 2014; Mondal et al. Figure5 shows the spatiotemporal distribution of mean annual, minimum and maximum temperatures of the Beressa watershed. According to Griggs & Noguer (2002), Babel et al. The details of these stations have already been presented in Table2. The temporal variabilities of rainfall are characterized by;i. The line connecting the fixed average is known as averagely moving. The calculated PCI for seasonal as well as inter-annual rainfall distribution for the spatiotemporal time series is shown in Table2. On the other hand, 19 years (54.3%) recorded more than the annual average rainfall. The Geologic Processes: Endogenic and Exogenic Forces, 2.3. The reduction in precipitation is projected to be steepest over Northwestern Province and lessens southwards. What causes climate change? Annual and seasonal rainfall and temperature are influenced by the variability of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) which causes interannual rainfall variability over Ethiopia. However, it hasno significant coverage compared to other seasons. How can we respond to the changing climate? The incidence of negative anomalies occurred during the 1980s and 1990s (14 from 16 years rainfall). The Mann-Kendall test results showed that the annual and seasonal rainfall trend was highly variable. Continuously increasing temperature, together with the variability and fluctuation of seasonal and inter-annual rainfall is a root cause for the decrease and fluctuation of crop production. In line with the study by Wu et al. The average rainfall inthe region varies from 1,400 to over 2,200 mm/year.iii. The convergence of Northeast Trade winds and the Equatorial Westerlies forms theITCZ, which is a low-pressure zone.The inter-annual oscillation of the surface position of theITCZ causes a variation in the Wind flow patterns over Ethiopia and the Horn. As the shift takesplace, equatorial westerlies from the south and southwest invade most parts of Ethiopia bringingmoist winds.However, these winds decrease the length of rainy seasons and magnitudes on the line of theshift. Both increasing and decreasing trends of climatic variables were observed. Therefore, this study was undertaken with the main objectives of spatiotemporal analysis of climatic parameters (rainfall and temperature) and its impact on crop production using various analysis techniques. Out of seven stations, long-term annual maximum temperature has shown a significantly increasing trend (three stations at 5% significance level and two stations at 10% significance level). Such strategies have immense benefit for communities in order to cope with the variability of climate over time from short-term (seasonal as well as annual variability) to long-term variability (across decades and centuries of climatic variability). Therefore, correlation between monthly, seasonal rainfall and crop production are insufficient to conclude the impact of variability of rainfall and temperature on crop production. Likewise, as presented in Table2, the distribution of annual rainfall has shown to be very low with high PCI. 2015; Wagesho & Yohannes 2016). 2006; Rashid et al. Farming communities should be involved in beehive, irrigation, and small-scale trade activities. Back to Lesson. 2009). Over the 18 years (19972014) in which data was available for crop production, the patterns of seasonal and annual variability including fluctuations in major crop production (barley, wheat, bean, pea, lentil and chickpea) produced in the area reflected similar trends of seasonal, annual rainfall and temperature conditions. 5.3.2. The location of Ethiopia at close proximity to equator, a zone of maximum insolation,resulted for every part of the country to experience overhead sun twice a year. The available data for crop production (Q/ha) over 18 years (19972014) for the major crops such as barley, wheat, beans, peas, lentils and chickpeas were obtained from the district office of Agriculture and Central Statistical Authority. Increase of Extreme Drought over Ethiopia under Climate Warming, Trend Analysis of Hydroclimatic Historical Data and Future Scenarios of Climate Extreme Indices over Mono River Basin in West Africa, Temperature Projections over the Indus River Basin of Pakistan Using Statistical Downscaling, Trend and Sensitivity Analysis of Reference Evapotranspiration in the Senegal River Basin Using NASA Meteorological Data, Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Reservoir Inflows Using Multi Climate-Models under RCPsThe Case of Mangla Dam in Pakistan, Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources of the Bheri River Basin, Nepal, Analyses of Observed and Anticipated Changes in Extreme Climate Events in the Northwest Himalaya, Climate change impacts on land use in Gadaref and North Kordofan States and future Desert sheep distribution in Sudan, Improving Hydro-Climatic Projections with Bias-Correction in Sahelian Niger Basin, West Africa, Trends and Changes in Recent and Future Penman-Monteith Potential Evapotranspiration in Benin (West Africa), Seasonal Variability of Historical and Projected Future Climate in the Kathmandu Valley, Assessing Future Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow within the Alabama River Basin, Prediction of Climate Change Effects on Plantain Yield in Ondo State, Nigeria, Improving Hydro-Climatic Projections with Bias-Correction in Sahelian Niger Basin, Estimation of Hydrological Components under Current and Future Climate Scenarios in Guder Catchment, Upper Abbay Basin, Ethiopia, Using the SWAT, Statistical downscaling of global circulation models to assess future climate changes in the Black Volta basin of Ghana, Estimation of the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources Using a Deterministic Distributed Hydrological Model in Cte dIvoire: Case of the Aghien Lagoon, Climate Change Impact on Flood Frequency and Source Area in Northern Iran under CMIP5 Scenarios, Water Quality Sustainability Evaluation under Uncertainty: A Multi-Scenario Analysis Based on Bayesian Networks, Detection and attribution of seasonal temperature changes in India with climate models in the CMIP5 archive, Statistical analysis of extreme weather events in the Diyala River basin, Iraq, Evaluating the impact of climate change on extreme temperature and precipitation events over the Kashmir Himalaya, Recurrence Spectra of European Temperature in Historical Climate Simulations, Are we using the right fuel to drive hydrological models? Mean annual temperature varies from over 30 0Cin the tropicallowlands to less than 100c at very high altitudes.The Bale Mountains are among highlands where lowest mean annual temperatures are recorded.The highest mean maximum temperature in the country is recorded in the Afar Depression.Moreover, lowlands of north-western, western and south-eastern Ethiopian experiences meanmaximum temperatures of more than 300C.Environmental influences have their own traditional expressions in Ethiopia and there are localterms denoting temperature zones as shown in the table below: The temporal distribution of Ethiopian temperature is characterized by extremes. Previous Topic. Climate Change/Global Warming: Causes, Consequences and Response Mechanisms, CHAPTER SIX SOILS, NATURAL VEGETATION AND WILDLIFE RESOURCES OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN. Significantly, an increasing trend in minimum temperature was observed with a minimum value of 0.005 C/year in GIN station to a maximum value of 0.12 C/year in DBS station. As already explained. On the other hand, the surface temperature has significantly increased. According to Anderson (1942), in order to exclude the influence of serial correlation, before using MK test statistics, serial autocorrelation is tested by Lag-I autocorrelation using different levels of significance (0.01, 0.05 and 0.1%). Notably, there is a significant increase in the maximum number of consecutive dry days and significant decreases in the number of days with at least 1 and 10 mm of precipitation. Here, the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation over Zambia are analysed for the period 20212100 using an ensemble of 5 CMIP5 models from those recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The annual maxima of 1 d and consecutive 5 d precipitation are also projected to increase. Other studies have focused on very limited stations and arrived at a conclusion regarding the characteristics of spatial climatic variability for entire regions (Gamachu 1988; Meze-Hausken 2004). Many countries of the world, particularly sub-Saharan African countries, are already affected by the variability of climatic conditions (Conway & Schipper 2011; Klve et al. 2014; Kishore et al. The High altitudesand the windward side experience such rainfall amount.ii. Rock and Mineral Resources of Ethiopia, CHAPTER THREE THE TOPOGRAPHY OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 3.2. Most of the studies about rainfall and temperature characteristics are limited by short-term and long-term time series available for most parts of the regions. Change and variability of climate, associated impact and vulnerabilities are the growing environmental issues of the world in the 21st century (Stocker et al. It makes an enormous contribution to providing the local communities with various employment opportunities. The Impacts of Relief on Biophysical and Socioeconomic Conditions, CHAPTER FOUR DRAINAGE SYSTEMS AND WATER RESOURCE OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 4.3. Results of correlation analysis between monthly and seasonal rainfall with crop production were insufficient to conclude the impact of rainfall and temperature on crop production. Improving awareness about climatic variability and its adverse implications for their environment enables farmers to modify their resources and management practices and make efficient use of available water for better crop production. A significant increase in annual mean temperature was observed in all stations, with the magnitude varying from 0.03 C/year and 7.60% in DB station to 0.14 C/year and 31.30% at SD station. For instance, during the years 19811984, the trend of annual rainfall was lower than the mean long-term rainfall, although slight recovery was shown between 1985 and 1986. The minimum temperatures increased at a higher rate than the maximum temperatures during winter, summer, autumn and also at the annual timescale. Spatiotemporal Distribution of Rainfall Rainfall system in Ethiopia is characterized by complexities. The study area encompasses six . The monthly rainfall data are for 132 points of 10 10 km grids reconstructed from weather stations and meteorological satellite observations, which cover the period between 1983 and 2013. Assessing the long-term spatiotemporal rainfall distribution pattern is the most significant component in the climate analysis of a given country, more specifically at the local and regional levels where the effect of climate change is worse. This study assessed the historical (19832005) and future (20262100) rainfall, maximum temperature (Tmax), and minimum temperature (Tmin) trends of the Ziway Lake Basin (Ethiopia). Because of the rainfall-dependent farming practice, farmers are always worried about the duration and intensity of rainfall. Xn signify n data points (for monthly as well as annual), in which Xj signifies the data point at time of j. Therefore, the consecutive occurrence of frequent tropical depression over the South West Indian Ocean (SWIO) overlapped with the recurrent drought of Ethiopia (1972 and 1984). Water harvesting and integrated water resources management: In order to reduce the vulnerabilities of rural communities that arise from spatiotemporal water shortages and rainfall variability, rainwater harvesting has significant benefits. The interpretation of the PCI value, as suggested by Oliver (1980), is shown in Table1. Even though the rainfall indicates seasonal and inter-annual variability, the area is characterized by a bimodal rainfall regime, with maximum rainfall concentration during kiremit (summer) season, which extends from June to September. Spatiotemporal distribution and the characteristics of the air temperature of a river source region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Environ Monit Assess. Ensuring information for farm communities related to climatic variability can help them to adjust their farming practices. The time series of five years moving average minimum and maximum temperature was analysed for the period 19802014. At the annual scale, maximum and minimum temperatures significantly increased in over 33% of the Basin at a rate of 0.1 and 0.15 C per decade, respectively; however, the western part (12%) of the Basin experienced declining trends on annual and seasonal timescales. Therefore, given the prolonged climatic variability of the Beressa watershed, the following coping and adaptation mechanisms are suggested. In this season, the effect of the northeast trade wind is very muchreduced. During these seasons, rainfall is more highly variable than the main rainy season of the area. For most developing countries of the world, agriculture is the basis of the economy. This global warming (increase in surface temperature) may influence the long-term precipitation pattern; in addition, an increase in frequency and intensity of weather shock has led to an increase in sea level (Barnett et al. Conversely, the southeasterlies from the Indian Ocean provide rain to the highlands ofSomalia, and to the central and southeastern lowlands and highlands of Ethiopia. The MannKendall test results showed that the annual and seasonal rainfall trend was highly variable. The minimum and maximum temperatures have increased by 0.8 and 1.1 C/year, respectively. Despite the importance of soil moisture, studies on soil moisture characteristics in Ethiopia are less documented. The elevation ranges from 2,747 to 3,674 m a.s.l. Summer rainfall regionThis region comprises almost all parts of the country, except the southeastern and northeasternlowlands. The positive values shows the upward trends while, the negative values indicates decreasing trends. The problem is high in developing countries, particularly sub-Saharan countries in which the majority of the population live on rainfed agriculture. Seasonal analysis of rainfall obtained from MK test statistic results are presented in Table3. Both duration and amount ofrainfall decreases as we move from southwest to north and eastwards. Observed Data (2016), overall in the last 35-year period, the five years moving average of the long-term average annual rainfall shows a slight variation (Figure2). Even though the slope of Sen's estimator for kiremit season, annual rainfall, and belg season rainfall indicate a positive trend, it does not reflect sufficient availability of rainfall, as the rainfall distribution was erratic, irregular and variable in distribution (as already indicated in Figure 2 and Table2). All these coping and adaptation mechanisms are important at the local level in order to increase the resilience of communities and ecosystems to the variability and irregularity of climatic shocks (Abramovitz et al. 2016). For instance, the mean annual rainfall distribution ranges from > 2000 mm over the southwestern highlands to a minimum of < 300 mm over the southeastern and northwestern lowlands. Journal of Water and Climate Change 1 December 2019; 10 (4): 799817. Water Resources: Rivers, Lakes and Sub-Surface Water, 4.4. 2005). It builds on, among others, on the recommendations of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, but a substantial amount of information that became available afterwards has also been included.While this study is not meant to be a comprehensive overview of all aspects of climate change impact on the RMs economy it does reflect the breadth and depth of researches that had been done in the RM to date, and it provides a link between a global phenomenon and the sectors development issues facing the country. Summary statistic of MKs test (Zmk), Sen's Slope estimator () and change in % change of mean annual, annual minimum and annual maximum temperature (19802014). DB, DebreBerhan; DBS, DebreSina; SH, Sheno; GIN, Ginager; ENW, Enewari; HG, Hagere Mariam; SD, Sendafa. Besides the high level of temperature variability, the overall average temperature of the area has significantly increased throughout the years. 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