Below are the projections for the Tampa Bay Rays. My own expectation (Vazquez) would be $8-14M. Also gotta remember that the rest of the Central teams (especially Twins) have payroll space. Every time I projected the Mariners this winter, they showed incremental improvement. 2022 Year to Date: 2022 Projected Rest of Season: Sign up for the Thats an incredible run of success, and theyre not letting up anytime soon. With Spencer Torkelson on the Opening Day roster and Riley Greene close behind him (once he heals from his spring foot injury), Detroit has loudly declared its intention to compete sooner rather than later. Their problem is that none of Kansas Citys young pitchers have stepped up to contribute in a big way yet. I cant say Im displeased to see Luis Uras at the top of the batter list Ive long been fascinated by him and even featured him on my breakout list last year but Id definitely be uneasy about having him as my teams best player. Not having Xander Bogaerts hurts the Red Sox quite a bit, but ZiPS already liked Boston better than their 2022 record and a few of the guys on the edge of the roster (Ceddanne Rafaela, Enmanuel Valdez) have fairly solid projections. Hes about half of their payroll now. JAWS and the 2023 Hall of Fame Ballot: Mike Napoli. It arrived stressfully, chaotically, and slightly late, but the 2022 season is here. Bringing in Nelson Cruz to be a veteran mentor was a nice touch, and Stephen Strasburg could potentially return from his Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery mid-season. Welcome back, baseball! ZiPS isnt projecting Matt Chapman to set any new personal bests, as his offense has fallen off enough that hes probably left his 201819 MVP-ish peak for good. Without further ado, here are the ATC forecasted win totals for 2022: And here are the simulated standings and playoffs odds: Lets take a quick look at some of the differences between the results for the ATC projections and the FanGraphs playoff odds. Similar to the Yankees with Judge, the Astros arent likely to just shrug and stand pat if Justin Verlander doesnt return. If the goal was to sign him to an extension no matter what, then they should have signed some players to play with him this year and next, while his salary is still relatively low. Make no mistake even with their long-time franchise icon out of the picture after 12 seasons, the Braves are reloaded and ready to rock. Nearly every major site has some form of power rankings, usually derived from whatever panel of experts each site employs. by Retrosheet. Lets start with how teams performed versus their projections: Teams have gotten a bit more polarized in how theyre run in-season. I start by making a generalized depth chart, using our Depth Charts as an initial starting point. 2022 Projected Standings. The As have made a lot of improbable runs, but if they cause pain to the Astros and Mariners this year, it might be their most impressive surprise yet. The Tigers were one of the better teams in the American League during the second half of 2021 as they started to break out of their rebuilding cycle. Its supposed to be, fool me once shame on you, fool me cant get fooled again.. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. Their starting rotation remains shockingly thin, especially if Brash or Kirby stumble upon their introduction to the majors. Of note here is that higher-percentile projections already have more playing time baked in than lower-percentile projections before this step. Read the rest of this entry . by Retrosheet. by Retrosheet. The Rangers have stopped digging the hole, but 2022 is probably too soon for them to climb out. In the American League Central, ATC is also modeling a 5% better chance of the Guardians being part of the postseason, whereas the Twins model out 4% worse versus the FGDC simulations. Dont worry, they still have between $0M and $10M in payroll space and 1 top-100 prospect, plus a couple others in the 100-200 range that could be traded to help the roster. Getting back to the four-win threshold would still make him All-Star level, though. Signing Kris Bryant to launch dingers into the stratosphere in Denvers thin air is undeniably cool and fun. Heres their model for the 2022 Atlanta Braves: As you can see, FanGraphs is pretty high on the 2022 team. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. The Jays get the top place in the table with the highest divisional odds. The methodology Im using here isnt identical to the one we use in our Projected Standings, so there will naturally be some important differences in the results. Giants only at 81 wins? They project the Braves, or at least the current version of the Braves, to a post a 91-71 record, winning the division by one game over the New York Mets. by Handedness. An 85% chance to make the playoffs and a 9% chance to win the World Series at this point is high praise. Ariel also writes for CBS Sports, SportsLine, RotoBaller, and is the host of the Beat the Shift Podcast (@Beat_Shift_Pod). I would be surprised if the best middle infield came from a team other than these three. That Bobby Witt Jr. projects well is not a surprise, but Nick Pratto, MJ Melendez, and Vinnie Pasquantino all crushed the feckless assortment of minor league pitchers they faced, and you have to feel much better about the long-term outlook of all three in the majors. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Wander Francos very quickly become a star, and Brandon Lowe is my pick for the most underrated second baseman in the game. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski. Im looking forward to Adley Rutschman, Grayson Rodriguez, Cedric Mullins, and quickly changing the subject to the American League Central lest I have to think too much about this team. Reports are coming in the Cleveland has extended JRam. Over the last decade, ZiPS has averaged 19.9 correct teams when looking at Vegas preseason over/under lines. It was a sight to see. There have been very few things to celebrate in Baltimore recently Trey Mancinis comeback and Cedric Mullins 3030 season being the most recent but theyll finally start to see the foundations of their rebuild make it to the majors this year. None of Starling Marte, Mark Canha, or Eduardo Escobar are superstars though Marte comes close at times but signing that trio really improved how the lineup looks going into 2022. But this is also the Mets were talking about; anything that could go wrong probably will. Trent Grisham, CF; Manny Machado, 3B; Jake Cronenworth, 2B; Luke Voit, DH; Wil Myers, RF; Eric Hosmer, 1B; Austin Nola, C; Jurickson Profar, LF; Ha-Seong Kim, SS; Last season's Padres ranked 14th in both runs scored and wRC+, a catch-all metric housed at FanGraphs that adjusts for park and other variables. The surprises start at the top, with the Braves sitting ahead of the Dodgers for the top spot in the preseason rankings. So its not surprising that when you total it up, two of the teams that have made the most in-season additions over the last 17 seasons, the Astros and Yankees, are the two teams that have underperformed most often in ZiPS. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors
This projection does include the addition of Matt Olson but it should pointed out, the Braves arent done with off-season moves. The Cubs are making noise about spending this winter, but they need a couple of starting pitchers, a first baseman, most of a bullpen, and a DH to really threaten the top two teams in the Central. Help Support FanGraphs. ZiPS misses for teams from year to year are uncorrelated with an r^2 of one years miss to the next of 0.000575. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. To support those two generational talents, the Angels focused on shoring up their biggest weakness during this stretch of frustration: their pitching staff. Not sure thats really true. You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed. Check out these NFL playoffs picks and predictions for the game, which can be seen at 1 p.m. MST on CBS and Paramount+. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. San Diego retained Nick Martinez and Robert Suarez, and having a full season of Juan Soto and (hopefully) most of a year of Fernando Tatis Jr. is quite the boost. At least its steamed crab season! Dropping $125M on JRam doesnt seem to square with your assessment. The premium ad-free membership. Fangraphs 2022 Projected Standings 1399 points 617 comments 78 45 comments Take_Some_Soma SD '84 1 yr. ago Fool me once, shame on you. The exercise continues this offseason. Bold of you to assume deGrom will be healthy in October. Vladito versus Olson for supremacy in the AL should be a fun battle the next few years, though the former is likely to vanquish the latter for good in a few years given their respective ages. In the National League West, ATC is more bearish on the Padres. That makes the Rangers an interesting case study in a team trying to buy its way out of its rebuilding phase before the top prospects are ready to contribute. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted
Projected lineup. Luckily, New York brought in plenty of help during the offseason, spending at record levels to sign Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Mark Canha, and Eduardo Escobar and also trading for Chris Bassitt. bigbicepturner Wil Myers 1 yr. ago Fool me twice Can't fool me again edit: damnit, I screwed it up. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location,
The last move giving Rodrguez the chance to start with the team may be the biggest source. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please. If they can find a few midseason upgrades for their pitching staff, or if Paddack blossoms in his new home, they could make the White Sox sweat down the stretch. Its a deeper roster than last year, and even if areas like the bullpen arent exciting, the Jays have heirs and spares in place. ATC is smart aggregation of other projections; its methodology is based on the process that Nate Silver uses with his political forecasting model over at FiveThirtyEight. Luke Voit was a nice pickup from the Yankees, and a last-minute trade for Sean Manaea solidified their rotation. Thats a lot of ifs that have to go right, though. Combined with other changes in the playing time assumptions, Boston basically catches up to the division. And that means its time for one last important sabermetric ritual: the final ZiPS projected standings that will surely come back and haunt me multiple times as the season progresses. I talked quite a lot about Francos outlook when he he signed his big ol contract extension, so I wont rehash that here. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. Theres enough talent on the roster to be a nuisance to the other contenders in the NL East but not enough for the Nationals to be contenders themselves. Below are the projections for the Kansas City Royals. If theyre not your thing then Im not sure why you clicked on this article. 2023 Pre-Season Projections ZiPS . ATC further sets itself apart from other statistical aggregation methods. . "@HaloDom47 Whatever it projected was thrown out of whack because of Rendons bitch ass and a lot of the injuries that happened to other players most notably Trout. It has the Braves with a very similar final record to FanGraphs at 92-70 and even better chances to make the playoffs at 91%. It's not all bad. 25. Yes, the " ZiPs" projections developed by FanGraphs' Dan Szymborski still see the Tigers as a sub-.500 team. I think its more a reflection of whether one thinks the Mets are competitive with Atlanta (for the division) or with Philly (for the WC); given the health of JDG/Scherzer, Id choose the latter. That doesn't leave much time to handicap 2022 MLB win totals. Which is why I doubt the $10M number. With Joey Votto, reigning NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India, Luis Castillo, and Tyler Mahle still on the roster, Cincinnati has some talent left, but it was a very confusing process to get to this point. Although he didnt pitch for Atlanta due to injury - and only spent six weeks in the organization - he was a key part of the Braves mid-2010s rebuild. Read the rest of this entry . These standings reflect everything through yesterdays Hunter Renfroe trade. Third base (or second) is a better long-term home for him than shortstop, so last years Willy Adames acquisition showed the correct instinct on Milwaukees part. Thats another reason I love FanGraphs odds because they update daily throughout the season as records and rosters change. As it is, theyll likely have to get excited in late May when Cruz has all of a sudden taken a big step forward defensively. For just this run of rankings, Ive used the projected fielding component of WAR that appears on our Depth Charts projections. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. Maybe Zack Greinke being back in Royal blue for 2022 will help them find another level. Thats not to say their offseason was a failure. Collin McHugh had an impressive 2022 campaign too 2.60 ERA with a 0.938 WHIP over 69.1 innings. Thats true for everyone in baseball, but the error bars for the win projections for this quintet feel particularly wide. Thats the straight-up, pure, 100% unadulterated Ted Williams comp, too. In five years, the Rockies will be paying Lopez $10 million a year to put up 1.1 WAR and block the latest iteration of Brendan Rodgers or Ryan McMahon. Adding Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Jon Gray, Mitch Garver, Kole Calhoun, and Brad Miller certainly lifts the ceiling of their roster, but it still remains incredibly top heavy. Still, if they make the playoffs in 2022 as close a certainty youll get in baseball these days theyll join the 19912005 Atlanta Braves and the 19952007 New York Yankees as the only teams in history to make the playoffs for an entire decade. Call 1-800-GAMBLER. This works for me if there is 162 games which is not looking like it. It's supposed to be, "fool me once shame on you, fool me can't get fooled again." _Thot_Patrol They traded for Matt Olson and immediately signed him to an eight-year extension, giving them their long-term replacement at first base. Ariel is a member of the inaugural Tout Wars Draft & Hold league, a member of the inaugural Mixed LABR Auction league and plays high stakes contests in the NFBC. Oops. In my mind, that extreme difference in atmosphere and home-away record makes the Rockies the most interesting team in the league outside of the Rays. Below are the projections for the Oakland Athletics. The exercise continues this offseason. Currently viewing seasons between 2022 and 2022 We need your support to make FanGraphs sustainable so you can continue to enjoy all of the stats and tools you've come to rely on, like The. Read the rest of this entry . You can show your support to Fangraphs by becoming a member! Stored within ZiPS are the first through 99th percentile projections for each player. Even if father time catches up to only one of them (and tbh has it not already for Longoria) then 81 wins is pretty reasonable unless Joey Bart just comes out blazing. Depth Charts: FanGraphs Depth Chart projections are a combination of ZiPS and Steamer projections with playing time allocated by our staff. Posey retired, Kevin Gausman left to the Blue Jays, and Kris Bryant is a free agent and likely not going back to the Giants. We get Spring Training, we get to find out whos in the best shape of their lives, we get random injuries, meaningless stats, trades and signings are still happening, a long-term extension or two, and all the hope you can stand for what might happen in the upcoming baseball season. Well start with the AL East: You shouldnt be surprised to see the Yankees crash back to earth here, based on the simple fact that the dude worth 11.4 WAR for them this past season hint, its not Tim Locastro is currently unsigned. ZiPS was talking about 1980s minor league outfielder Ted Williams. Sotos plate discipline is other-worldly. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors
Shane Bazs elbow injury is concerning, but Yonny Chirinos should be making a return from his own elbow injury and Corey Kluber was signed to give them a little more stability in their rotation. If you squint, you can sort of see how it could work out for them, but theyll likely come up short this season. Which is what the Chisox are supposed to do on $10M. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. Last year, when PECOTA, Baseball Prospectus projection model, predicted the Braves would only win 82 games, all of Braves Twitter lost its collective mind. Now, the late-80s Braves eventually became the 90s Braves, something the Rangers are no doubt striving for, but getting from Point A to Point B isnt a route you can just put into your cars navigation system. Thats not to say their offseason was a nice pickup from the Yankees, and Lowe... 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Four-Win threshold would still make him All-Star level, though: Mike Napoli a star, and slightly late but. To square with your assessment none of Kansas Citys young pitchers have stepped to...
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